Gay Couples Law Blog : Atlanta Same Sex Family Law and Estate Planning Commentary : Gideon Alper : Gay Law, Domestic Partnerships

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No matter which way the judge rules in the California Proposition 8 trial, the case will almost certainly be appealed to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, and then the Supreme Court.

How would the Supreme Court rule? It's hard to predict because historic political majorities of the Court wouldn't apply.

It's not so simple as dividing up the Court into conservatives and liberals. First let's look at the traditional conservative majority. Usually it falls into two camps:

• Libertarians: "People can do whatever they want--as long as it doesn't cost anything, we don't care."
• Traditional right: "If it's not moral, you can't do it."

When it comes to gay marriage, these two camps will disagree. Libiterians will say that as long as gay couples getting married doesn't cost anything and doesn't affect other people, then it's fine.  But the traditional right won't like gay marriage because they don't think it's moral.

But the historic liberal side doesn't apply to the gay marriage debate either:

• Traditional left: "The government can't restrict personal freedom."
• Liberal subgroup: "The government should prevent people from harming themselves through laws and regulation."

The traditional left will support gay marriage, because they see marriage as a personal freedom and don't think the government should interfere. But a subgroup of liberals will support banning gay marriage if there's any reason that it's bad for society. Or, they'll want to ban gay marriage if they think gay sex is particularly risky (an argument that has much rarer than it was during the AIDS crisis).

So predicting how the Supreme Court would rule on gay marriage isn't as simple as counting the number of conservatives and liberals on the Court. A perfect example lies in the lead attorney for the side in the trial supporting gay marriage: Ted Olsen, a traditional conservative and President Bush's former solicitor general. See his article in a recent Newsweek about the conservative case for gay marriage.